The arrival of property tax a few happy a few sad?
The property tax finally arrived, a year later than I expected.Seems to want to smooth the transition, left a year of buffer time.In 2020, many people tried to escape the top, but did not escape.That would be a five-year high.It is hard to say what the future trend will be, but I believe it will not return to the 2020 high for at least five years.In 2022-23, there will be a mini-sell-off, there will be some good, genuine resales (not as proud sellers as in ’20 and’ 21) and we will really have a buyer’s market.It’s no use regretting not buying earlier, and my central point throughout is that young people who can’t get on the train 18 years before they get on the train are better off waiting until the property tax hits.Buying a house is the same as buying stocks. You see others making a lot of money by buying Maotai at the time of hundreds of yuan a share, so you must buy at the time of 2200 shares?The obvious trend of property tax is ignored, and the people who are always talking about permanent housing price rise are the people who have a lot of houses waiting to be taken over.It is the best choice for young people who have failed to catch up with the price increase to buy a house before inventory removal.Updated on 28 May 2021.Dawn came at last.Guidance price + south city collect the same day arrived, fry tenants panic not panic?Chengdu iron is the first batch of real estate tax pilot city, jump in front of the more fierce, behind the more miserable!The room of recent a month many people jump very fierce!The comment is to make mouth industry is to accuse me of cheating, afraid of the hand of the house no one to take it?The public opinion environment of chengdu property market is the darkness before dawn now.Shenzhen property market is what circumstance everybody can look on chain home now, do not have price, clinch a deal without history record…I’ll show you how it works.What’s the follow-up rhythm?Real estate tax is coming soon, I’m afraid, 2021, 2022 is the last shipping opportunity to fry tenants, how ugly words they can say, how ugly things they do.Part of the high-tech zone and part of the Tianfu New Area did increase in 2020, but what about the other 11 areas?As the asking price goes up, how many people can sell it?In the whole year of 2020, the turnover of second-hand houses in Chengdu dropped by more than half (in 19 years, it was usually 8000-12000 units per month, but now it is less than 3000 units per month), so it is an increase in their eyes.Let me tell you more about my judgment.1. After a whole year of crazy speculation, the fifth district of High School has exceeded the price. The 20-year flood has come to an end, and it is difficult to see any market in the next one or two years.City 4-4.5W, Tianfu Great Wall, Nancheng Duhui, Dongyuan, Fangcao South 3W, such price ceiling will maintain at least 2 years.2. Other areas of the high-tech zone (New Exhibition, Yuanda Zhongde, Zhonghe, Xinchuan, etc.) may appear in some areas, the specific time and area depends on the direction of speculators’ funds, whether there is a significant positive (such as better primary schools or infrastructure landing).However, most areas should also stabilize, after 2010, the unit price of the house should be less than 20,000 yuan is still worth buying (such as the new exhibition of shengnan District and other residential areas).In addition, the immortal tree area has a lot of cheaper old houses, in the third ring to work, and the school district has certain requirements for young people, it is worth looking at here (Tsinghua Square next to the four seasons homes and other houses or good).3. Currently, only Luhu, central Business District and ecological zone are acceptable in Tianfu New Area. Of course, Luhu and Garden City can afford the unit price of 30,000 yuan, but they are hardly affordable for young people.Central business district (CBD) of or can buy bridal chamber, tianfu future city park (talents, or water) to buy is to earn big money, the central business district (CBD) support to the unit price of 2.5, emperor qin jin decorate how miserable everybody also saw, the hardbound room of tianfu new area is a large hole, try to avoid buying hardcover room.At present, there are only new houses left in Chuanfa ecological belt. Although the unit price of 2W can be supported, there is not much room for price increase in the future. If young people buy second-hand houses and do not work in Nanmen, they should try not to accept second-hand houses here.4. I don’t know the main city, so I won’t give my opinion.5. There are many areas of the second layer is very cost-effective, Wenjiang Guanghua Avenue next to a lot of units and second-hand housing stock is very large.Xi Pu, xindu in recent years, the second-hand housing prices are basically nothing…If you buy five city districts of non-key school district housing, it is better to buy the second round of living quality better second new house.Chengdu’s property market will enter a period of freezing in the future to absorb the 16-17 boom (as well as the small boom caused by 20 years of hot money in Gaowu and Tianfu New Area).Another possibility is that after 20 years of big water, don’t know how many real estate funds will continue to surge in chengdu hot spots (five, tianfu three periods of a street, the city, the central business district), so the bridal chamber is still difficult to buy in these places, second-hand housing is likely to continue to rise, but other area will be stabilized and trading volume continued to maintain low,If you want to buy the second-hand housing which community, add a few more nearby intermediary, run into the price of urgent sale is obviously lower than the surrounding hanging price as soon as possible.After 20 years of hot spot boom, now most of the owners have changed their mentality, even if they can’t sell, the price will go up.As for the price reduction we look forward to, this is still to see when the property tax, how to out, not out of the property tax, that general price reduction is unlikely to appear.At present, the whole country, the whole property market in Chengdu are moving towards differentiation, in the country, Chengdu is the quasi line, can attract a large amount of capital, so Chengdu is difficult to spontaneously reduce prices.The differentiation of chengdu property market will also be water and fire, the hot concept of Chengdu speculation or “school district housing” and “new concept (TOD, central business district, Xinglong Lake, etc.)”.Still need the amount of capital according to oneself, need location undertakes choice.In general, I still hold a neutral and short attitude towards buying a house in Chengdu. It is feasible to expect housing price to outperform inflation, but it is necessary to choose the right position to expect housing price to outperform M2.From the region, many areas of second-hand housing will fall into the state of Yin, so the house closed to buy closed to make money in the past, real estate speculation will become a technical work.The vested interests before I bought a house 17 years ago will spray me, but 19 years later, and the friends who are still watching, I know whether I am right or not.