Kimin is too bitter, kill stock base, now start killing debt base!

2022-05-06 0 By

This year the stock market is really too difficult, a day to kill a track stock, yesterday the Internet brokerage leader Oriental wealth killed crazy, intraday diarrhoea 14%.Dongcai slump also collapsed the entire brokerage plate.I just applied for registration of the trademark “turn off the lights to eat noodles”, but I took the lead in turning off the lights to eat noodles.– Netizen ridicule.As one of the fund’s most like group tickets, Dongcai than king Ning also head iron, dongcai why slump?1. Dongcai is the third most heavily held stock in the fund, and also a typical “group stock”. Currently, when the group stock collapses, Dongcai is hardly immune.2. Corporate convertible bonds have entered the period of equity conversion. The previous two stock conversions both experienced significant declines.3. Under the background of cold fund issuance and failure of hot track stock issuance, dongcai’s performance, which accounts for the majority of fund sales revenue, may be affected.Gem really miserable now, one elder brother ningde very not easy to stop falling, two elder brother dongcai and crazy hit, this is not gem good?For dongcai drop, the market has a cheerful voice.According to the analysis, Dongcai limit, it is not far from the bottom, according to statistics, Oriental wealth each limit (after the reform should be -10% or more) corresponding market bottom.In recent years, after each dongcai big drop, the index will appear bottom rebound market.For example, on February 3, 2020, the limit fell, and the GEM index rose sharply.May 6, 2019 down limit, GEM index rebound;On September 10, 2018, the limit fell, and the gem bottom region rebounded.Will it be repeated this time?Kimin has not been easy this year, the track fund continues to kill.Many are turning to safety and buying relatively sound debt bases.Unexpectedly, valentine’s Day this day, relatively stable debt base was also killed, convertible debt base to usher in a rout.97% of convertible bonds fell, and only 10 rose, among which dongcai Zhuan 3 and Mona convertible bonds fell 13% and 11% respectively.The China Securities convertible Bond Index, an index of convertible bonds, fell -3.01% today.Did the debt base fall worse than the equity base?What on earth is going on?The price of cb is generally the anchor stock. After the New Year, many stocks fell and CB also followed.Over the past year, the convertible bond market has arguably experienced a great bull market, with the most profitable convertible bond fund gaining 46% since 2021.Because the performance of convertible bonds was very good last year, many fixed income + will buy some convertible bonds to balance the allocation and make more money.Such fixed +, net value will be dragged down.Therefore, we choose bond fund is not the higher the better.Some of the very high yield fixed +, which stuffed a lot of convertible bonds, these convertible bonds last year the bull market rose to the sky.Now this kind of fixed + risk is relatively big, we should sharpen our eyes when choosing.Since this year, the property market policy warm wind frequency blowing, the property market and housing prices will go?A few days ago, Vanke chairman Yu Liang an internal speech draft fire.Yu Liang, can be said to be the prophet of China’s real estate.As early as 2014, Yu Liang predicted that the property market would enter the Silver age, and the era of rapid expansion of the overall scale of the industry had come to an end.In 2018, the national property market in a good situation, Yu Liang shouted that sentence enjoys universal popularity “survive”;Up to now, history has given the answer to the ups and downs of China’s property market.This time, what did Yu Liang say?To sum up: 1,2022 is a year of burning Bridges and burning Bridges, and the beginning of a new era.Yu Liang judged this new era as the “Black Iron Age”.The Age of Black Iron was a worse age than the Age of Bronze.In Yu liang’s eyes, the current situation and future of China’s real estate may be more difficult than everyone imagined.2. How to understand the last Stand?It’s either die or live, there’s no in between.If you can get rid of the baggage you have accumulated in the past, you have the opportunity to start a new journey.3. The industry has entered the stage of shrinkage and clearing, which means de-financialization.The average debt-to-asset ratio of outstanding companies is likely to fall to 50% in the next five years.4, housing is not fried is actually “housing” and “not fried” two aspects.”Housing”, which means the policy may be slightly relaxed;”Not speculation” means that the industry returns to people’s livelihood attributes, do not expect housing prices to rise.Mr Yu also poses a particularly pointed question: “Although housing may release some demand, is there still such a large demand today?”Judging from the data, both in January and during the Lunar New Year, the housing market as a whole got off to a miserable start this year.January 100 cities, the Spring Festival 40 city transaction sharply decreased by more than 40% year on year, is expected in February the property market is still not optimistic.Where will prices go this year?Xu Hui CEO Lin Feng predicted that the housing price in the first quarter due to the traditional off-season and concentrated payment, there is great downward pressure, the second quarter will hover at the bottom, the third quarter may be estimated to pick up.