How will the mainland recover Taiwan?Experts from both sides of the strait debate, a surprising conclusion
A KMT think tank held an open forum to discuss the “military threat” the Mainland may pose to Taiwan in the next five years, according to multiple Taiwan media reports released on February 18.Lin Yufang, a former “representative of public opinion” on the island and the convener of the forum, pointed out that in 2021, the trade volume between the two sides reached a new high of more than 320 billion US dollars, but cross-strait relations are so sharply antagonized that such extremely unbalanced relations may not be able to maintain the “cross-strait status quo”.Lin yu-fang also believes that the Tsai Ing-wen administration insists on opening the us pork containing rictopamine and nuclear radiation food from Fukushima, Japan, not for economic and trade purposes, but to attract the US and Japan to intervene in the Taiwan Strait, which will have a very serious impact on cross-strait relations.As for how The Mainland might retake Taiwan, Qi Leyi, a military commentator on the island, was “optimistic” that the PLA would not be able to “fully attack Taiwan” in a decade, but did not rule out using other means to achieve the result of “force talks”.In fact, the question of whether and how we can reunify has been a topic of widespread concern in the island for the past few years, but the Taiwanese authorities have always avoided talking about it.They often use “23 million people’s public opinion” as a shield to stir up political issues and propaganda, and it is the DPP itself that worsens people-to-people exchanges across the Straits.Therefore, scholars on both sides of the Strait may realize that it is difficult to realize the perfect harmony under the ideal state and must find a new way to create a new model.From mainland association for relations across the Taiwan strait vice-chairman holds, said in an interview with the media in January this year, “and” and “six” is not the opposite, two sets of scheme is to plan two choices, because over time, the external environment will become more severe, the possibility of a military conflict cannot be ruled out, but the possibility that negotiations are always there.Similarly, Wang Zai-xi, vice president of Taiwan Research Society, also expressed similar views. He pointed out that neither “peace by war” nor “unification by force” were divorced from the category of peaceful reunification in essence, and this “Peiping model” could be regarded as the integration of “unification by peace” and military means.It is not hard to see that the debate between scholars on both sides of the Taiwan Straits has brought many new and even surprising conclusions to the future development of the Taiwan Straits.In fact, the argument that “Taiwan cannot be fully attacked within 10 years” was not uncommon in the island’s public opinion. However, at that time, the STRENGTH of the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army was far less than that of today, so the “Taiwan independence” activists even clamoured that “reunification will not be seen within 50 years”.But as time went on, especially with the rapid rise of our navy, the first fifty years became thirty years, and then ten years.Last year, when cross-strait relations were tense, they only dared to say that they would not launch a full-scale attack on Taiwan in 2022. Now they say that they will not be able to fully attack Taiwan in 10 years. This is obviously a word game to calm the feelings of the people on the island.Otherwise, once the atmosphere of war spreads in the island, the voice of forcing Taiwan authorities to negotiate with the mainland will be raised, which is not conducive to Tsai Ing-wen’s political gains.However, no matter what the forces on the island may think, the mainland’s policy towards Taiwan has gradually shifted from “preventing independence” to “promoting reunification”, and adopted a more active and promising policy towards Taiwan.Not only should the people in the island see the mainland’s long-term plan for the future of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, but also did not give up the military deterrence against the “Taiwan independence” stubborn forces in the island.Has achieved cruise around the island, especially in the people’s liberation army military drills work normal, even flew anti-submarine helicopter “low-level” close up “airspace”, the involvement of foreign powers to achieve rapid response, so the authorities need to think about the future is the democratic progressive party (DPP), the mainland has repeatedly said, “to refuse system”, “ocean seeks independence” is a dead end,Forcing external forces to intervene in the Taiwan Strait can only accelerate the demise of these reactionary forces.In particular, Washington has shown a tendency to be reluctant to intervene in the Taiwan Straits. It is not in the interests of the United States to have a head-on collision with the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army for the sake of the Taiwan authorities, a non-core ally, when the United States and its Allies are not under attack.American scholar Thomas Fukuyama, who wrote the book The End of History, has argued that if the Taiwanese people had not shown a willingness to sacrifice their lives for self-defence, no American soldiers would have gone to war for them.Ironically, more than half of the respondents to the island’s current polls believe that “the U.S. military will intervene first,” and that Washington will be the winner.So, to some extent, the DPP’s foolish policies of the past few years have worked.But that is all the more reason for China to stick to its existing policy towards Taiwan and keep hammering away at more “nonsense” to make them face reality. Only in this way can it find the best way out for reunification.